It?s finally here.
The outcome of the New Hampshire primary has been widely predicted for more than a year, but still there are minidramas and key markers to watch for.
Continue ReadingBelow are POLITICO?s five things to keep your eyes peeled for before and after the polls close:
1) Mitt Romney?s number
Barring a miracle, Mitt Romney will win the New Hampshire primary. The question is, how handily.
The expectations for a runaway Romney victory are so high that the campaign has been fighting voter apathy for days, hoping to boost turnout.
The range varies for the figure insiders believe he needs to achieve. Rich Killion, a New Hampshire-based GOP strategist, argued that 38 percent is the floor for Romney.
?That?s what (John) McCain got,? Killion said.
It would also be higher than Romney got in 2008, when he snared 32 percent of the vote for a second-place finish.
Polls have consistently shown Romney between 35 percent and 40 percent for the past several months in the Granite State, a neighbor to the one he once governed and now a place where he owns a home.
This time around, Romney hasn?t campaigned in New Hampshire with anywhere near the frequency of 2008. But in order to head into South Carolina with a serious bounce, he needs a convincing double-digit win. Anything north of 40 percent is comfortable for him; below 35 percent, and the questions will continue about his ability to grow his base.
It may not be fair ? after all, Romney will have just pulled off an unprecedented feat as a nonincumbent by winning both Iowa and New Hampshire ? but that?s the game of politics.
2) Will Ron Paul fade at the end?
Paul was thought to be a potential winner in the Iowa caucuses, where he was known to have a strong organization. Yet he came in third place behind Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, who were divided by a minuscule margin.
Paul certainly was able to grow his base from where it was in the 2008 caucuses, and he cleared the 20 percent bar. Still, third place is third place.
In New Hampshire, where Paul has also devoted lots of time and built up a strong ground game, polls show him flagging ahead of the primary vote. Instead, the momentum seems to favor Jon Huntsman, who has been very much on the rise.
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